The Challenge: A Critical Intersection in Japan
In March 2026, the Japanese government made a significant decision to temporarily lift restrictions on coal-fired power generation. This move was driven by a severe energy security crisis—specifically, the supply instability of LNG and oil due to the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
This situation presents a difficult dilemma. While ensuring a stable power supply is a fundamental duty of any state, it cannot justify a permanent retreat from decarbonization goals. The real challenge lies in how to manage these two competing priorities—Energy Security and Decarbonization—simultaneously.
Hourly Matching: A Unified Metric for Two Goals
To navigate this crisis without abandoning climate commitments, we must shift toward a more granular and quantitative management system. This is where Hourly Matching (matching renewable energy supply and demand on an hour-by-hour basis), currently under discussion in the GHG Protocol Scope 2 revisions, becomes essential.
Hourly Matching is not just a tool for tracking carbon; it is a framework for resource efficiency. By using the "Hourly Matching Rate" as a key metric, we can achieve a rational balance:
Quantifying the Necessity of Thermal Power: Instead of running coal plants as a baseline, data allows us to limit their use strictly to the hours when renewables and storage are insufficient.
Reducing Import Dependency through Time-Shifting: When consumers shift their energy use to periods of high renewable output, they directly reduce the physical volume of fossil fuels that must be imported. This strengthens national security by mitigating the impact of global supply chain disruptions.
A Model for Asia’s Energy Transition
This integrated approach is particularly relevant for Asian nations that rely heavily on fossil fuel imports and face growing energy demands. For these countries, a binary choice between "green" and "stable" is often unfeasible.
By adopting Hourly Matching as a management method, these nations can transition from a rigid reliance on coal to a flexible, data-driven system. It allows for the pragmatic use of existing thermal assets in emergencies while ensuring that the primary momentum remains firmly on the path to net-zero.
The goal is a resilient energy system where transparency and data-driven management ensure that short-term security measures do not become long-term environmental liabilities.
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